USD/JPY may fall 70 - 105 pips

Our pivot point is at 147.51.

Our preference

The downside prevails as long as 147.51 is resistance.

Alternative scenario

The upside breakout of 147.51, would call for 148.09 and 148.44.

Comment

The RSI is below 30. It could either mean that the pair is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and therefore bound to retrace (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 148.53 and 149.15). Finally, the USD/JPY has penetrated its lower Bollinger band (146.89).

Supports and resistances

148.44 **

148.09 *

147.51 **

147.29

146.85 last

146.15

145.80 **

145.46 *

145.12 **

Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.