USD/PLN may fall 103 - 152 pips

Our pivot point is at 3.8989.

Our preference

The downside prevails as long as 3.8989 is resistance.

Alternative scenario

Above 3.8989, look for 3.9072 and 3.9122.

Comment

The RSI is trading below 30. This could mean that either the pair is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and that therefore a rebound could shape (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 3.9016 and 3.8998). Finally, the USD/PLN has penetrated its lower Bollinger band (3.8911).

Supports and resistances

3.9122 **

3.9072 *

3.8989 **

3.8957

3.8888 last

3.8785

3.8736 **

3.8687 *

3.8638 **

Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.