AUD/JPY may fall 83 - 124 pips

98.50 is our pivot point.

Our preference

The downside prevails as long as 98.50 is resistance.

Alternative scenario

The upside breakout of 98.50, would call for 99.18 and 99.58.

Comment

The RSI is trading below 30. This could mean that either the pair is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and that therefore a rebound could shape (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 98.38 and 98.57).

Supports and resistances

99.58 **

99.18 *

98.50 **

98.23

97.96 last

97.13

96.72 **

96.32 *

95.91 **

Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.