AUD/JPY may fall 84 - 124 pips

Our pivot point is at 98.22.

Our preference

The downside prevails as long as 98.22 is resistance.

Alternative scenario

The upside breakout of 98.22, would call for 98.89 and 99.30.

Comment

The RSI is below 30. It could either mean that the pair is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and therefore bound to retrace (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 98.11 and 98.05). Finally, the AUD/JPY has penetrated its lower Bollinger band (97.64).

Supports and resistances

99.30 **

98.89 *

98.22 **

97.95

97.56 last

96.72

96.32 **

95.92 *

95.52 **

Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.