TRY/JPY may fall 410 - 510 pips

Our pivot point stands at 4.33.

Our preference

The downside prevails as long as 4.33 is resistance.

Alternative scenario

The upside breakout of 4.33, would call for 4.36 and 4.38.

Comment

The RSI is below 30. It could either mean that the pair is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and therefore bound to retrace (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 4.30 and 4.31). Finally, the TRY/JPY has penetrated its lower Bollinger band (4.28).

Supports and resistances

4.38 **

4.36 *

4.33 **

4.32

4.26 last

4.22

4.21 **

4.19 *

4.17 **

Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.