NZD/JPY may fall 48 - 70 pips

Our pivot point is at 96.27.

Our preference

The downside prevails as long as 96.27 is resistance.

Alternative scenario

The upside breakout of 96.27, would call for 96.64 and 96.86.

Comment

The RSI is below 30. It could either mean that the pair is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and therefore bound to retrace (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 96.54 and 96.52). Finally, the NZD/JPY has penetrated its lower Bollinger band (95.92).

Supports and resistances

96.86 **

96.64 *

96.27 **

96.12

95.80 last

95.32

95.10 **

94.88 *

94.66 **

Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.