EUR/JPY may fall 81 - 119 pips

169.09 is our pivot point.

Our preference

The downside prevails as long as 169.09 is resistance.

Alternative scenario

The upside breakout of 169.09, would call for 169.73 and 170.12.

Comment

The RSI is below 30. It could either mean that the pair is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and therefore bound to retrace (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 168.90 and 169.16). Finally, the EUR/JPY has penetrated its lower Bollinger band (168.50).

Supports and resistances

170.12 **

169.73 *

169.09 **

168.83

168.34 last

167.53

167.15 **

166.76 *

166.38 **

Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.