AUD/JPY may fall 53 - 74 pips

104.13 is our pivot point.

Our preference

The downside prevails as long as 104.13 is resistance.

Alternative scenario

The upside breakout of 104.13, would call for 104.49 and 104.71.

Comment

The RSI is below 30. It could either mean that the pair is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and therefore bound to retrace (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 104.38 and 104.31). Finally, the AUD/JPY is trading below its lower Bollinger band (standing at 103.80).

Supports and resistances

104.71 **

104.49 *

104.13 **

103.99

103.76 last

103.23

103.02 **

102.80 *

102.59 **

Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.