USD/PLN may fall 125 - 176 pips

Our pivot point is at 4.0468.

Our preference

The downside prevails as long as 4.0468 is resistance.

Alternative scenario

Above 4.0468, look for 4.0554 and 4.0606.

Comment

The RSI is trading below 30. This could mean that either the pair is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and that therefore a rebound could shape (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 4.0428 and 4.0454). Finally, the USD/PLN is trading below its lower Bollinger band (standing at 4.0344).

Supports and resistances

4.0606 **

4.0554 *

4.0468 **

4.0434

4.0286 last

4.0161

4.0110 **

4.0059 *

4.0008 **

Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.